Jordan is preparing for a visit by Hamas politburo chief, Khaled Mishaal, who is currently based in Damascus, to make an official visit to Amman along with the Qatar’s Crown Prince after Eid al Adha. Meshaal has made (two? right?) visits to Jordan in recent weeks, but the big difference this time around is that he is reportedly due to meet with King Abdullah. In setting the mood for the upcoming visit, Jordan’s new PM said Monday that the government’s decision in 1999 to expel Hamas leaders, including Khaled Meshaal was a ‘constitutional and political mistake.’

The Jordanian authorities have a fundamental crisis with the Palestinians. The country’s Hashemite rulers were transplanted from the Arabian Peninsula to rule over a territory that was predominantly inhabited by Palestinians. Didn't a lot of these Pals come after the creation of Israel, though? Jordan thus views groups like Hamas and any bid for Palestinian statehood as a direct threat to the sustainability of the Hashemite monarchy. This is why Jordan has a very healthy relationship with Israel, which shares common cause with the Jordanian government in keeping the Palestinians contained.

But Jordan is now looking at a rapidly evolving situation in their neighborhood that is forcing them to engage in some new, albeit uncomfortable, policy moves toward the Palestinians.

On the domestic front, Jordan has not been immune to demonstrations inspired by the Arab Spring trend. Most of the demonstrations have been led by the political arm of the Jordanian MB called the Islamic Action Front. But these demos have been markedly different from those taking place in neighboring Arab countries. Jordan has a much more open relationship with its opposition and the demonstrations have been quite orderly there has been violence, i wouldn't make it sound like Occupy Austin with authorities notified beforehand. The opposition in Jordan is very aware of its limits and does not call for regime change. Instead, their calls are focused on tangible reforms when it comes to fighting corruption and providing basic services. They don't call for regime change but actively rallied for the downfall of the government. Not just reforms and stuff.

Jordan is also looking nervously at the political transition taking place in Egypt. Though Jordan is happy to see the military regime in Egypt maintain control, they can see that the govt in Cairo will increasingly have its hands full in trying to contain its domestic opposition while trying to keep Hamas hemmed in in Gaza.

Then there is the situation in Syria, where al Assad’s political problems are growing. A great deal of tension exists between Jordan and the Syrian regime allied with Iran, but Jordan also relied on Syria to play its part in keeping Hamas in check. A lot of Hamas’ finances, for example, run through Hamas’ politbureau, which moved to Damascus in 2001. Now that the Syrian regime is distracted, Jordan is growing concerned about Egypt’s and Syria’s abilities to keep Hamas in check and is now trying to take matters into its own hands. Jordan also shares an interest with Egypt in trying to distance Hamas from Iran’s orbit of influence and deny Iran a strong foothold in the Levant region. On the home front, Jordan’s government can also use improving ties with Hamas to gain credibility with the country’s Islamist opposition.

But Hamas also comes with a lot of baggage. Though Jordan and Israel continue to cooperate closely, Jordan does not necessarily want to be held responsible by Israel for Hamas’ militant actions. Jordan and Israel also don’t want to give Hamas an opportunity to gain a strong foothold in Fatah-controlled West Bank to threaten both Jordan and Israel. I know dispatch can only be a certain length, but I feel like even though in your mind this is an appropriate caveat, the way it will come across is that you spent a huge portion of time talking about why we think Jordan wants Hamas to set up shop there, and only a tiny fraction talking about why this is a bad idea for Jordan, and is unlikely to happen. Like Emre pointed out, we didn't really come to a conclusion in the last discussion. This would be a really dramatic shift for Jordan and I think it would be well served to give equal time to each side of the analysis.

Hamas also is weighing the merits of warming ties with Jordan. The group understands well that Jordan’s intelligence and security apparatus works in tight coordination with Israel and the US and will be doing whatever it can to clamp down on Hamas’ movements. Then again, Hamas is also facing problems with its hosts in Syria and doesn’t want to be associated with the regime’s crackdowns on mostly Sunni protesters. Hamas is looking for a new home, and Jordan could be the one to lay out the welcome mat for its own strategic interests.